College Football Rankings for week 10

If you're looking for the Asbury Computer Rankings and Predictions, see the new blog http://asburycfb.blogspot.com

College Football rankings after Week 6

Alright, here are my college football computer rankings through week 6. I dislike that my computer has such a strong bias toward UGA, ranking them at #2, despite having a loss and overtime win against Tennessee. They have played the toughest schedule so far, with a strength of schedule rating of .720 (the average of .475 because of the FCS teams that are opponents but are not included in the rankings). There isn't much agreement between the AP poll and my computer but as Alabama and Oregon play and beat tougher competition, they will climb up to be more in line with the human polls.

It's interesting to note that my computer is picking Missouri to knock off Georgia 35-33 in Athens. I checked the formulas. They're all correct - it just gave the Dawgs some major negative momentum after struggling with Tennessee last week. Other notable predictions: BYU 30, GT 26. LSU 30, Florida 23. Alabama 37, Kentucky 16.

Some hands from the Valdosta sectional

Here are a couple of deals from the sectional in Valdosta last weekend.

Matchpoints W dealer EW vulnerable

East

South

West

North

Pass

1♦

Pass

1♥

Pass

1NT

Pass

2♣

Pass

2♥

Pass

4♥

Pass

Pass

Pass

North ♠ T87 ♥ K82 ♦ A432 ♣ AK9

West ♠ KQ65 ♥ T96 ♦ T85 ♣ 532

You lead the fairly normal ♠K. Partner follows with the 3 and declarer takes the A, then draws trumps in three rounds with partner showing up with Q3 and discarding an encouraging D6 (upside down attitude). Declarer plays a low spade from hand. Decision time.

 

Let’s take a minute to think about the situation. All we really know about the distribution is that declarer has 5 hearts and partner likes diamonds. Where is the SJ? We don’t know, but if partner has it, we ought to play low, just in case he started with a doubleton. If declarer has the SJ, there is no rush to take the Q unless declarer could get to discard it. Dummy’s clubs and diamonds don’t look to threatening, especially since partner encouraged in diamonds.

 

There is, however, one situation in which it is crucial to take the SQ now. If declarer started with ♠AJx and ♣Qx, our spade trick will go away on the third round of clubs. Declarer would also need a holding where discarding a diamond wouldn’t help, such as QJx or Qxx (given that partner has the K, both of those holdings have 1 loser whether you discard one on a club or not). Also, declarer might not even try to sneak a spade through with that holding, so the signs point toward ducking this trick. Sure enough, on this layout, partner held ♠Jx.

 

This other deal isn’t actually that interesting but it’s an auction you don’t see very often: P-3♥-P-7♥; P-P-P. I held ♠AKQ5   ♥AKQ   ♦A765   ♣A5. You can count 12 tricks off the top, and there are a few places you could get the 13^th trick, so I took a chance and bid the grand that no one else in the room bid. The preemptor could have the ♠J, ♦K, ♣K, 3 spades and a 3-3 split, 8 hearts, all making 7NT a laydown. The only way 7♥ could pick up is if partner has only 6 hearts and Kxx. Then you would need a club ruff for the 13^th trick. Granted, that’s pretty unlikely, but it was the reasoning behind bidding 7♥ instead of 7NT in a field where I figure bidding and making any grand would be 90% of the matchpoints.

Changing Strategies

In any sport or game, you have a normal game plan – one that you use throughout the regular season, in the early part of an event or match, in the first set of a tennis match. That’s like the default mode. In baseball, a team’s default might be letting your starter pitch until he gets to 100 or so pitches, always giving him 4 or 5 days of rest, giving your position players some regular days off, and saving your top reliever (closer) for the 9th inning of games you are tied or slightly ahead in. In bridge, that might mean playing middle of the road bridge – taking some risks but not huge ones. In tennis, that could equate to following your natural game – for me, that would be hitting big serves, power ground strokes, and some serve and volleying. As the game or match progresses or the bridge game nears the end, strategy should change. You play a little bit differently depending on when you’re way ahead, way behind, or in a close battle. In postseason baseball, teams do not rest their regulars, they bring back their ace starter on three days’ rest, they bring out their closer earlier in ball games to preserve leads because these games are more crucial than a regular season game. In tennis, if you lose the first set 6-1, you change your approach – in my case, I take a bit off of my ground strokes and try to just run down everything or go to the other extreme and adopt a chip-and-charge approach, rushing the net at every opportunity. In bridge, when you’re at the halfway point ahead by 40 imps, you adopt a more conservative approach. On deals where you might have made a marginal overcall, you pass, sort of willing to concede 3 or 4 imps to protect against a potential big loss. When you trail by 40 at the halfway point or estimate a 41% game, you become more aggressive – you’re unlikely to make a big enough comeback by playing down the middle so you take more risks in hopes of big pick-ups. Last weekend, there were multiple times where we had gotten a really bad board or two so I turned more aggressive to try to win the boards back. It almost always worked. Holding something like AKx, Jxx, Qxxx, xxx, I raised partner’s 3H preempt to 4, something I might not ordinarily do but after a few relatively flat boards, our opponents made a beatable vulnerable game and we aren’t going to win this 8-board match with more pushes. In a pair game, I upgraded a decent 14 count to a strong notrump after the opponents got a good result for pushing us to 3H and a top for 930. The risk paid off again as we reached a marginal 3NT that on its own has a fair chance but the defense made it easy. These aren’t risks I would always take – the event and the competition have an effect on that. Anything less than a blitz or a 65% game in this field would be a disappointment so I went all out to get that and thought that there was a good chance for the risk to payoff. Against a good team, I might continue to play down the middle and minimize losses, particularly in a Swiss where losing a match doesn’t mean you are out of the event. Against a much better team in a KO, you probably come out taking risks from the start because with everyone playing “down the middle”, you’ll lose so you need some fortunate things to come out victorious. You may wind up losing by 60 instead of 30, but hey, a loss is a loss no matter by how much. The Atlanta Braves are terrible at this whole change your approach based on the situation thing. It has been this way for years. Fredi Gonzalez frequently makes defensive substitutions late in games and has done so all season, but the way he managed the pitching staff in the Division series against the Dodgers was no different than the (acceptable) way he managed them during the regular season. Yes, in many if not most of the 96 wins in the regular season, the starter pitched 6 innings, left with a lead, some combination of Avilan, Carpenter, and Walden pitched the 7th and 8th, and Kimbrel finished off the 9th. No one doubts that Kimbrel is the best of the bunch, but in the regular season you generally limit him to 1 inning so he doesn’t tire out and might be available the next night, too. In the post season, there may not be a next night and in fact, even if the Braves won, the next day would be a day off. In an elimination game, Kimbrel should be in the game earlier than the 9th when you have a 3-2 lead heading into the Dodger half of the 7th. I would have brought him in to face the pinch-hitter and then the top of the lineup in the 7th and let him pitch through the heart of the Dodger lineup in the 8th. Then Avilan or Carpenter could pitch the 9th and technically get the save (assuming Kimbrel pitches to 7 batters in 2 innings, they would have 7-8-9 up in the 9th, an inning that should definitely be easier). Take a hint from the Dodgers and Tigers, who both used their ace in game 4. Admittedly, those teams are different because after their top 3 starters, there is a big drop off and neither team has middle relievers who have been as good as the Brave relievers, while the Braves lack a real ace – except in the bullpen with Kimbrel. Baseball fans and managers are save-obsessed, and it frustrated me. Can we get rid of that statistic, or create some other statistic to help evaluate the effectiveness of 7th and 8th inning reliever? That might convince people that closers should go into games in the pressure situations like 2 on, none out in the 7th or 8th rather than a clean 9th with the bottom third of the order due up. In bridge, there isn’t a good thing to compare this to because even with 6 person teams where you have substitutions, stamina isn’t really an issue. It is, however, standard, to put your best lineup in for the last half or matches because that is more likely to be a high-pressure situation.

So, I guess this fall will be all about sports for me with very little bridge. I guess that’s fine. Fall bridge tournaments tend to interfere with several fun activities like watching football, the baseball playoffs, and enjoying the nice weather on the tennis court and jogging trails and dog parks.

 

Anyway, this is the 5^th season of my computer football rankings. The formula is almost unchanged from last season and I guess I can go ahead and put out my first rankings after 4 weeks of the college football season. In 2012, Notre Dame finished as my #1 ranked team, despite losing the “National Championship” game to Alabama, who was a fairly distant #2.

 

NCAA  Football - September 23, 2013 - through week 4Football – Sept. 23, 2013 – through week 4 

				Strength off
Rank	W	L	Team	Schedule	Total Rating
1	3	0	ALABAMA	20	96.450
2	3	0	OKLAHOMA	36	92.324
3	3	0	OREGON	78	86.633
4	3	0	CLEMSON	46	86.512
5	3	0	STANFORD	51	86.265
6	4	0	LSU	57	85.726
7	3	0	UCLA	66	82.739
8	3	0	FLORIDA STATE	79	82.068
9	3	0	FRESNO STATE	58	81.069
10	3	1	NOTRE DAME	56	78.753
11	3	0	OKLAHOMA STATE	75	78.235
12	2	1	FLORIDA	6	77.999
13	3	0	WASHINGTON	68	77.318
14	2	1	GEORGIA	2	76.757
15	3	0	ARIZONA	93	76.312
16	2	1	SOUTH CAROLINA	11	75.545
17	4	0	OHIO STATE	118	75.064
18	4	0	MICHIGAN	92	75.057
19	3	0	MISSISSIPPI	67	74.916
20	3	0	BAYLOR	110	74.658
21	4	0	TEXAS TECH	88	74.385
22	3	1	TEXAS A&M	48	74.262
23	3	0	UCF	95	74.001
24	3	0	GEORGIA TECH	87	72.857
25	4	0	LOUISVILLE	109	71.783

In this week’s games, my computer predicts Georgia Tech to win 31-20 over VT and LSU to nip UGA 31-30.