College Football rankings after Week 6

Alright, here are my college football computer rankings through week 6. I dislike that my computer has such a strong bias toward UGA, ranking them at #2, despite having a loss and overtime win against Tennessee. They have played the toughest schedule so far, with a strength of schedule rating of .720 (the average of .475 because of the FCS teams that are opponents but are not included in the rankings). There isn't much agreement between the AP poll and my computer but as Alabama and Oregon play and beat tougher competition, they will climb up to be more in line with the human polls.

It's interesting to note that my computer is picking Missouri to knock off Georgia 35-33 in Athens. I checked the formulas. They're all correct - it just gave the Dawgs some major negative momentum after struggling with Tennessee last week. Other notable predictions: BYU 30, GT 26. LSU 30, Florida 23. Alabama 37, Kentucky 16.

So, I guess this fall will be all about sports for me with very little bridge. I guess that’s fine. Fall bridge tournaments tend to interfere with several fun activities like watching football, the baseball playoffs, and enjoying the nice weather on the tennis court and jogging trails and dog parks.

 

Anyway, this is the 5^th season of my computer football rankings. The formula is almost unchanged from last season and I guess I can go ahead and put out my first rankings after 4 weeks of the college football season. In 2012, Notre Dame finished as my #1 ranked team, despite losing the “National Championship” game to Alabama, who was a fairly distant #2.

 

NCAA  Football - September 23, 2013 - through week 4Football – Sept. 23, 2013 – through week 4 

				Strength off
Rank	W	L	Team	Schedule	Total Rating
1	3	0	ALABAMA	20	96.450
2	3	0	OKLAHOMA	36	92.324
3	3	0	OREGON	78	86.633
4	3	0	CLEMSON	46	86.512
5	3	0	STANFORD	51	86.265
6	4	0	LSU	57	85.726
7	3	0	UCLA	66	82.739
8	3	0	FLORIDA STATE	79	82.068
9	3	0	FRESNO STATE	58	81.069
10	3	1	NOTRE DAME	56	78.753
11	3	0	OKLAHOMA STATE	75	78.235
12	2	1	FLORIDA	6	77.999
13	3	0	WASHINGTON	68	77.318
14	2	1	GEORGIA	2	76.757
15	3	0	ARIZONA	93	76.312
16	2	1	SOUTH CAROLINA	11	75.545
17	4	0	OHIO STATE	118	75.064
18	4	0	MICHIGAN	92	75.057
19	3	0	MISSISSIPPI	67	74.916
20	3	0	BAYLOR	110	74.658
21	4	0	TEXAS TECH	88	74.385
22	3	1	TEXAS A&M	48	74.262
23	3	0	UCF	95	74.001
24	3	0	GEORGIA TECH	87	72.857
25	4	0	LOUISVILLE	109	71.783

In this week’s games, my computer predicts Georgia Tech to win 31-20 over VT and LSU to nip UGA 31-30.

 

2 Loser Hands and Football Rankings going into Bowls

Last night I held two 2 loser hands. Both times we had a 1-2-6 auction. What did I have? ATxxx, AKQx, -, AKQx. The opponents intervened with a diamond overcall and advance sacrifice and somehow I was the only one to bid 6S. We were cold for 7 as long as spades came in opposite KQx after having to ruff truck 1. The other freak 2 loser hand I had was AKQTxx, AQ, AQxxx, -. We had a true 1S-2S-6S auction. I was able to pick up Jxxx of spades onside but wasn’t able to take the heart finesse so made 6 (partner had both minor kings and that’s all) but was strangely again the only one in slam.

There were a ton of good intermediate defensive problems that I should have written down as they would be good candidates for articles in the book I will eventually write about becoming a better defender. I wasn’t taking notes or keeping score but perhaps I should go back and copy down a few of those hands so that when I inevitably get bored/motivated again, I’ll have something more write about.

In other news, bowl season is upon us. Anyone for a Notre Dame-Florida championship game? Yeah, Georgia fans would pitch a huge fit if that happened. Here are the rankings headed into the bowls. My computer finished the regular season beating the spread 55.9% of the time, which makes it 54% over the last 3 years. Maybe it’s time to start betting on these games. Despite ND being ranked #1, even my computer predicts Alabama to win. It also picks a number of other things that aren’t very logical, especially Northern Illinois, a 14 point underdog with the weakest schedule in all of the FBS, to beat Florida State.

						Strength of
Rank	Prev	BCS	W	L	Team	Schedule	Total Rtg.
1	1	1	12	0	NOTRE DAME	12	95.518
2	2	3	11	1	FLORIDA	7	90.513
3	3	2	12	1	ALABAMA	36	87.560
4	4	NE	12	0	OHIO STATE	61	85.700
5	6	4	11	1	OREGON	39	84.530
6	7	5	11	1	KANSAS STATE	38	84.101
7	5	11	9	2	OKLAHOMA	26	83.875
8	9	6	11	2	STANFORD	5	82.741
9	11	10	10	2	SOUTH CAROLINA	29	80.205
10	12	8	10	2	LSU	27	80.097
11	13	9	10	2	TEXAS A&M	33	79.520
12	10	7	11	2	GEORGIA	58	79.218
13	8	16	10	3	NEBRASKA	17	78.604
14	14	13	8	3	OREGON STATE	11	77.875
15	16	24	10	2	San Jose State	77	72.718
16	15	17	9	4	UCLA	31	71.691
17	17	14	10	2	CLEMSON	71	71.162
18	18	12	11	2	FLORIDA STATE	93	70.589
19	22	15	12	1	NORTHERN ILLINOIS	124	69.259
20	19		9	3	Ball State	66	68.960
21	20	18	8	4	MICHIGAN	13	68.106
22	23		9	3	Fresno State	89	67.370
23	21	25	11	2	Kent State	113	66.087
24	24	NE	8	4	PENN STATE	35	65.029
25	27	20	9	3	Northwestern	75	64.179
26	29	22	10	2	Utah State	121	64.154
27	30	19	10	2	BOISE STATE	119	64.120
28	25	23	8	4	TEXAS	28	63.885
29	32		9	3	Arkansas State	81	63.453
30	28		9	3	RUTGERS	97	62.781
31	31		9	3	TOLEDO	92	62.314
32	34	21	10	2	LOUISVILLE	117	61.940