Wednesday, November 7, 2012

Fantunes and college football through 10 weeks

Recently I’ve been looking at the Fantunes bidding system in depth and trying to decide if it is something I would like to play. In case you are unfamiliar, this system, developed and used by world champions Fulvio Fantoni and Claudio Nunes, features very sound, natural, and forcing 1 level openings and 2 level openings that are natural and usually 10-13 hcp. The biggest advantage to this is that it puts you in better position to describe your hand if they interfere, having already shown strength and a real suit (except that 1C could be just about any strong NT). That is worth a lot, given how people compete on air so much nowadays. However, 4441 hands are more of a problem because there’s no real natural way to bid them. Their system puts the 12-14 hcp 4441 hands in with 1NT but the ACBL (at least in general convention chart events) frowns upon that. Sean and I are trying to work around that and try this modified Fantunes system this weekend.

In other news, college football rankings after 10 weeks are out. After beating LSU, Alabama is still solidly #1 in the BCS but Notre Dame still has a slight edge over them in my computer rankings. I expect that by the time they demolish Georgia on December 1, they will rise to #1 in my computer.

Strength of
RankPrevBCSWLTeamScheduleTotal Rtg.
11 490NOTRE DAME894.180
22 190ALABAMA2093.329
34 681FLORIDA588.660
43 290KANSAS STATE4086.593
55 1171OREGON STATE2783.872
67 390OREGON7879.820
76 NE100OHIO STATE7078.126
89 581GEORGIA5377.566
911 1262OKLAHOMA1677.071
1019  15 72TEXAS A&M2175.651
1114 1672NEBRASKA1474.802
1216 1381CLEMSON8473.692
138 1472STANFORD3372.895
1410 772LSU2472.874
1513 1081FLORIDA STATE9371.230
1615 872SOUTH CAROLINA2270.900
1723 17 72TEXAS4369.275
1825 1872UCLA4868.779
1920 990LOUISVILLE11868.661
2012 22 63TEXAS TECH1266.833
2121 2371RUTGERS11265.170
232272San Jose State8764.213
2528 2581TOLEDO11363.848
2626 2472Northwestern7563.097
2734 2081Louisiana Tech12062.929
283181Kent State12262.380
291872BOISE STATE10062.267
3027 2172Mississippi State8662.059

Georgia Tech really needs to beat UNC this week and Duke next week to get to a bowl for the 16th straight season because they don’t stand much chance against Georgia. My computer picks UNC by 9. It looks like there aren’t many interesting games this week, which is fine because I don’t have time to watch any football this weekend.

In case anyone is wondering, my computer prediction program is 61.1% against the spread this season in games involving top 25 teams. That's pretty darn good. It was 53.2% in 2011, 52.9% in 2010, and 47.5% in 2009.

Its predictions for this week:
Florida State 37, @Virginia Tech 17
@Alabama 31, Texas A&M 25
Notre Dame 33, @Boston College 13
Georgia 35, @Auburn 17
@LSU 29, Mississippi State 19
@Stanford 24, Oregon State 21
@North Carolina 35, Georgia Tech 26
Wake Forest 25, @NC State 24

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