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AKT9xx
xxxxI was in 3NT with the south hand and got the Q of spades opening lead, which I ducked and he continued. If diamonds come in for 1 loser, I have 8 tricks and might be able to get a 9th in clubs as long as they can only take a total of 2 spades, a diamond, and a club. I decided I should plan to take the double hook in diamonds. I may wind up scoring no diamond tricks on the hand but it seems right – I don’t want to cash all the diamonds as soon as they force me to dummy with the ace of hearts. I could just see that if I played AK and another diamond, they would sitck me in dummy with a heart and I would have to make 4 pitches then, having to unguard my hearts or clubs and any competent defenders would figure out the situation.
So I led a diamond and west, after about 5 seconds of thought, plays the jack. I think it is probably wrong to split the honors with QJxx, might be right to split with QJx, but can never be wrong to play the jack from QJ, Jx, or J. If anything, playing the jack from Jx may force me to win and establish and cash the diamonds sooner than I want. Or it could cause me to make an unnecessary guess in the suit later in the hand. Anyway, I ducked and he returned a heart. I played a club to my Q and LHO’s A. Back a spade to my K and now I have the guess in diamonds. LHO follows low to this trick. I can make the rest of the diamonds by playing AK if they originally were 3-2 either way or I can make it by finessing the 10 if LHO started with QJxx. I decided to play for 3-2 since I would not have played the jack earlier from that holding but would from Jx. I went down 2, losing 2 spades, 2 diamonds, the king of hearts, and the ace of clubs. 3 people went down 1 and 3 people made 3NT. If I win the J of diamonds with the A and go ahead and set up the suit, I’ll be down 1 unless they misdefend.
Clearly I thought about the hand a lot more than anyone else at the club. I can’t trust people, even against the top players at this club, to defend like I would or defend well.
Splitting from QJxx: a subtle Grosvenor Gambit? But anyway, it seems to me that ducking the first spade was a clear mistake.
ReplyDeleteReason 1: a good West player with QJxx will switch to a heart at trick two, and split only on the second round of diamonds...now dummy is dead and you're down two or so.
Reason 2: if you don't duck the first spade, then you can set up the diamonds however you like, and then if they knock out your AH, you have an extra idle spade in your hand to pitch on the run of the diamonds. So you can just run them all and then lead a club to the KQ. Not foolproof (if East has AC and West has KH), but a pretty good shot.
Virtue would have had to have been its own reward on the hand, though, because I think the right play in diamonds is AK and another. Compared to the double finesse, it gains against QJx and QJ offside (three cases), but loses to x offside (two cases). But the cards apparently lay the less probable way.
What do you think?
yes, without any other concerns, playing the AK of diamonds is the percentage play for 5 tricks in the suit but only by 4% or so over the double hook. Right, if i take trick 1, i could still hold Qx of hearts and KQ of clubs, which would still be a stopper if the heart king was onside but it wasn't.
ReplyDeleteRegardless of whether you take the first spade or let them shift to a heart at trick 2 (and assuming they will find the heart shift after winning a diamond), you have to take 5 diamonds tricks and a club to make the contract, and I still think my play in the diamond suit was correct.